RICS Housing Market Survey
18
Apr
Posted by: Simon Page in: Property News
I thought I would also add this to the mix with the latest IPD data. RICS always reveal their pessimistic nature (RICS website):
The housing market downturn is gathering momentum
- The message from today’s RICS Housing Market Survey is clear - the downturn in the
housing market is gathering pace as the credit squeeze reinforces the impact of the
recent loss in buyer confidence on average house prices.
- The balance of surveyors reporting house price falls slumped from -65.7% in February
to -78.5% in March. That was the weakest reading since the survey began in January
1978, a period covering the last two major housing market downturns. The survey
also reported a sharp drop in both newly agreed and completed sales, as well as sales
expectations among surveyors. Consistent with that, the balance of surveyors
expecting prices to rise over the next three months fell to –73, another record low.
- The survey holds out little hope of a recovery in the immediate future. At -49%, the
new buyer enquiries balance fell back to the level recorded in the immediate aftermath
of the Northern Rock debacle and suggests that mortgage demand will remain very
subdued for the next few months. (See Chart.)
- It is hard to know to whether weak buyer enquires are a reflection of the weakening
economic and house price outlook, or whether the reduction in mortgage credit is to
blame. Both are likely to have been important. And with the stock of unsold property
at a decade high, while tighter lending criteria are curtailing the purchasing power of
buyers who are still active, further house price falls seem inevitable.
- The contrast between the weakness of the housing market and data which suggest
that the wider economy is slowing, but still relatively healthy, is striking. In our view,
it illustrates just how important looser credit conditions have been as a driver of house
prices. With the economy poised to slow sharply the significant correction in house
prices we have long warned about now seems to be underway.

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